🤖 AI-Infra 趋势
$/Mtok · capex · $/GPU-hr🟢AI巨头砸钱建厂, 同比翻倍AI 解读
六大科技公司一季度合计花1484亿美元搞算力, 比去年多九成。
- 最新一季合计资本开支1484亿美元
- 同比暴增91%, 投入还在加速
- 亚马逊单季442亿、微软309亿领头
- token价差悬殊: 顶级模型贵旗舰百倍
▶ AI建厂热未退, 关注算力链持续受益。
Token 价格 ($/Mtok · input)
年化降幅 +0.0% · 半衰期 — 月
Hyperscaler Capex (季度 · $B)
最新季 CY2026Q1 · 合计 YoY +90.8%
GPU 租用 ($/GPU-hr)
on-demand list (Azure) vs marketplace floor (Vast); per-GPU-hour
💱 2560 & overnight 成交明细
| 时间(SGT) | 标的 | 向 | 量 | 价 | PnL | 类型 | 备注 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-18 21:31 | WAL | short | 162.0 | 79.94 | — | open | [gate] |
| 06-18 21:30 | DPST | long | 37.0 | — | — | close | [gate] |
| 06-17 21:30 | SCHW | long | 90.0 | 93.31 | — | open | [gate] |
| 06-17 21:30 | VST | long | 42.0 | 160.69 | — | open | [gate] |
| 06-17 21:30 | WDC | long | 2.0 | 713.00 | — | open | [gate] |
| 06-17 21:30 | STX | long | 2.0 | 1,063.13 | — | open | [gate] |
| 06-17 21:30 | HOOD | long | 63.0 | — | — | close | [gate] |
| 06-16 21:30 | ETN | short | 30.0 | — | — | close | [gate] |
| 06-15 21:32 | POWR | short | 504.0 | — | — | close | [gate] |
| 06-15 21:31 | RKLB | short | 25.0 | 109.49 | — | open | [gate] |
| 06-15 21:30 | SPY | short | 65.0 | — | — | close | [gate] |
| 06-15 21:30 | TQQQ | short | 95.0 | — | — | close | [gate] |
| 06-12 21:31 | ETN | short | 30.0 | 393.64 | — | open | [gate] |
| 06-12 21:30 | INTC | long | 33.0 | 116.96 | — | open | [long] |
| 06-12 21:30 | TMDE | long | 1736.0 | 1.08 | — | open | [long] |
| 06-12 21:30 | QQQ | short | 43.0 | — | — | close | [gate] |
| 06-11 21:30 | HOOD | long | 63.0 | 86.36 | — | open | [gate] |
| 06-11 21:30 | HOOD | long | 63.0 | 86.36 | — | open | [long] |
| 06-10 21:30 | QQQ | short | 43.0 | 707.89 | — | open | [gate] |
| 06-10 21:30 | POWR | short | 504.0 | 26.82 | — | open | [gate] |
| 06-10 21:30 | SPY | short | 65.0 | 737.11 | — | open | [gate] |
| 06-10 21:30 | TQQQ | short | 95.0 | 73.72 | — | open | [gate] |
| 06-10 21:30 | SOXL | long | 19.0 | 201.68 | — | open | [gate] |
| 06-10 21:30 | SOXL | long | 19.0 | 201.68 | — | open | [long] |
| 06-10 21:30 | DPST | long | 37.0 | 121.81 | — | open | [gate] |
| 06-10 21:30 | DPST | long | 37.0 | 121.81 | — | open | [long] |
| 时间(SGT) | 标的 | 向 | 量 | 价 | PnL | 类型 | 备注 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-19 21:35 | AAPL | buy | 20.0 | 298.01 | — | open | MOC建隔夜·收盘竞价≈sizing价 |
| 06-19 21:25 | TSM | sell | 13.0 | 462.12 | $96.72 | close | 平隔夜·已对账(entry=454.68→exit=462.12) |
| 06-19 21:25 | SMH | sell | 9.0 | 659.88 | $8.91 | close | 平隔夜·已对账(entry=658.89→exit=659.88) |
| 06-19 21:25 | MU | sell | 3.0 | 1,133.99 | $19.86 | close | 平隔夜·已对账(entry=1127.37→exit=1133.99) |
| 06-19 21:25 | MRVL | sell | 18.0 | 310.58 | -$307.17 | close | 平隔夜·已对账(entry=327.64→exit=310.58) |
| 06-19 00:21 | MRVL | buy | 18.0 | 327.64 | — | open | MOC建隔夜·收盘竞价≈sizing价 |
| 06-19 00:21 | AAPL | buy | 20.0 | 297.35 | — | open | MOC建隔夜·收盘竞价≈sizing价 |
| 06-19 00:21 | SMH | buy | 9.0 | 658.89 | — | open | MOC建隔夜·收盘竞价≈sizing价 |
| 06-19 00:21 | TSM | buy | 13.0 | 454.68 | — | open | MOC建隔夜·收盘竞价≈sizing价 |
| 06-19 00:21 | MU | buy | 5.0 | 1,127.37 | — | open | MOC建隔夜·收盘竞价≈sizing价 |
🎯 NDX 反转信号
2026-06-20🟡纳指偏顶, 警惕但未拉警报AI 解读
大盘整体不冷不热, 但顶部信号已亮4个, 别太贪。
- 市场状态中性, 不偏多也不偏空
- 顶部警戒打到4/5, 接近过热线
- 还没到5/5全亮的强卖出信号
- 比特币跌破7万会触发自动熔断
▶ 偏顶警戒, 加仓要谨慎、留好退路。
体制
neutral
顶部 top
4/5
底部 bottom
1/5
NDX顶 5/5
safe
COT ES 杠杆基金
safe
VIX/VIX3M 倒挂
safe
HY OAS 信用利差
safe
CBOE SKEW
safe
10Y>4.5%
safe
30Y>5.0%
safe
VIX>20
safe
SPX单日<-2%
safe
SPX距20日高回撤>5%
safe
KOSPI<8000
safe
SOXX破50DMA
safe
MAGS<$65
safe
Brent>$100
safe
BTC<$70k
FIRED
📰 COT 周报
2026-05-12🟡大资金分歧: 抢标普、撤纳指AI 解读
机构在标普期货里猛加多单, 却在纳指上减仓, 方向打架。
- 数据截至5月12日, 已超3周, 仅看方向
- 标普期货多单暴增, 极端罕见(z=4.4)
- 纳指被减多2万手, 偏谨慎
- 黄金白银仍维持净多, 避险情绪在
▶ 数据偏旧, 关注标普纳指分歧延续否。
COT 最新数据日 2026-05-12 · 大型投机/商业净持仓与周变化(WoW)+ z-score(对自身历史)。
z 绝对值越大 = 当前持仓相对历史越极端(潜在拥挤/反转)。
| 市场 | 净持仓 | WoW | z | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP500期货 | 49,298 | +153,183 | 4.4 极端 | 净多增 |
| 纳指期货 | -21,899 | -20,067 | -3.0 极端 | 净多减 |
| 原油 | -41,499 | -7,438 | -1.7 | 净多减 |
| 比特币CME | 1,259 | -182 | 1.0 | 净多减 |
| 白银 | 26,111 | +2,219 | -1.0 | 净多增 |
| 黄金 | 171,622 | +8,319 | -0.9 | 净多增 |
✍️ 人工策略 · discretionary 手动交易
Capital.com / futu / HL🟢手动盘长期稳赢, 赚多亏少AI 解读
989笔实盘真账户累计赚1.2万, 赢的钱比亏的多六成。
- 真账户数据, 累计实现盈利1.2万美元
- 胜率52.8%, 赢一笔赚的比亏的多(1.67倍)
- 2560日线打法胜率最高, 达70%
- 最大单笔亏2151美元, 注意尾部风险
▶ 继续2560日线打法, 控好单笔最大亏损。
📈 各 setup 盈亏 · edge 分析
| setup / 策略 | 笔 | PnL | 胜率 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 398 | $8,681.59 | 56% |
| 5m 0DTE Momentum | 257 | $3,765.54 | 52% |
| 5m 0DTE MACD Early Trend Reversion | 97 | $2,412.97 | 48% |
| 5m 0DTE MACD Crossover | 88 | $1,819.01 | 53% |
| Day Chart 2560 | 84 | $1,222.33 | 70% |
| 5m 0DTE Mean Reversion | 3 | $115.30 | 100% |
| Sentiment | 5 | $9.97 | 40% |
| Day MACD EXH | 3 | -$9.03 | 33% |
| Day MACD V7 | 1 | -$28.17 | 0% |
| Day EMA9 Reversion | 54 | -$5,837.28 | 9% |
🟢 当前持仓 (13)
| 开仓(SGT) | 标的 | 向 | 入场 | 量 | setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 00:53 | SPCX | long | 171.45 | 2.0 | Sentiment · Other |
| 06-13 00:52 | SPCX | long | 170.04 | 2.0 | Other · Other |
| 06-12 23:49 | US100 | short | 29,466.70 | 0.02 | Other · Trendline Break, Head & Shoulder, EMA Support/Resistance |
| 06-10 11:10 | US100 | short | 28,962.00 | 0.02 | Other · Trendline Break, Head & Shoulder, EMA Support/Resistance |
| 06-10 08:09 | US100 | short | 29,080.90 | 0.02 | Other · Trendline Break, Head & Shoulder |
| 06-10 01:44 | GOLD | long | 4,265.45 | 0.2 | Other · Other |
| 06-10 00:19 | US100 | short | 28,410.80 | 0.02 | Other · Trendline Break, Head & Shoulder, EMA Support/Resistance |
| 06-09 20:52 | MU | long | 992.20 | 0.3 | Day Chart 2560 · EMA Support/Resistance |
| 06-08 23:48 | HK50 | long | 24,685.90 | 0.2 | Other · Other |
| 06-08 23:29 | US100 | short | 29,582.00 | 0.02 | Other · EMA Support/Resistance, EMA Breakout, Head & Shoulder |
| 06-08 23:25 | US100 | short | 29,668.50 | 0.04 | Other · Trendline Break, Head & Shoulder, EMA Support/Resistance |
| 06-08 10:22 | US100 | short | 29,085.20 | 0.05 | Other |
| 06-08 10:22 | US100 | short | 29,085.20 | 0.05 | Other · EMA Support/Resistance, EMA Breakout, Head & Shoulder, Trendline Break |
🔚 最近平仓 (60)
| 日期 | 标的 | 向 | 入 | 出 | PnL | setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | US100 | Short | — | — | -$4.63 | Other · Trendline Break, Head & Shoulder, EMA Support/Resistance |
| 2026-06-12 | xyz:SPCX | Long | — | — | -$14.36 | Sentiment · Other |
| 2026-06-10 | US100 | Short | — | — | -$14.54 | Other · Trendline Break, Head & Shoulder |
| 2026-06-10 | GOLD | Long | — | — | -$12.32 | Other · Other |
| 2026-06-10 | US100 | Short | — | — | -$17.59 | Other · Trendline Break, Head & Shoulder, EMA Support/Resistance |
| 2026-06-10 | US100 | Short | — | — | -$31.74 | Other · Trendline Break, Head & Shoulder, EMA Support/Resistance |
| 2026-06-09 | MU | Long | — | — | $2.60 | Day Chart 2560 · EMA Support/Resistance |
| 2026-06-08 | HK50 | Long | — | — | -$0.01 | Other · Other |
| 2026-06-08 | US100 | Short | — | — | -$1.67 | Other · EMA Support/Resistance, EMA Breakout, Head & Shoulder |
| 2026-06-08 | US100 | Short | — | — | $1.09 | Other · Trendline Break, Head & Shoulder, EMA Support/Resistance |
| 2026-06-08 | US100 | Short | — | — | -$36.07 | Other · EMA Support/Resistance, EMA Breakout, Head & Shoulder, Trendline Break |
| 2026-06-06 | HK50 | Short | — | — | $35.40 | Other |
| 2026-06-06 | HK50 | Short | — | — | $13.28 | Other · Other |
| 2026-06-03 | ETH/USD | Short | — | — | -$6.46 | Other · Other |
| 2026-06-03 | SOL/USD | Short | — | — | -$15.05 | Other · Other |
| 2026-06-03 | SOL/USD | Short | — | — | $58.78 | Other · Other |
| 2026-06-02 | ETN | Long | — | — | -$19.85 | Day Chart 2560 · Other |
| 2026-06-02 | ETH/USD | Short | — | — | -$22.70 | Other · Other |
| 2026-06-02 | AMKR | Long | — | — | -$28.17 | Day MACD V7 · Other |
| 2026-06-02 | AVGO | Long | — | — | -$24.05 | Day Chart 2560 · VWMA 5 below 60 |
| 2026-06-02 | SOL/USD | Short | — | — | $0.70 | Other · Other |
| 2026-06-02 | SOL/USD | Short | — | — | $5.03 | Other · Other |
| 2026-05-30 | IBM | Long | — | — | $19.86 | Day Chart 2560 · MA 5 above 60, VWMA 5 above 60, MACD 共振 |
| 2026-05-30 | SOL/USD | Long | — | — | -$5.19 | Other · Other |
| 2026-05-28 | Gold | Long | — | — | -$16.51 | Other · MA 5 below 60, VWMA 5 below 60, Pinbar |
| 2026-05-28 | ORCL | Long | — | — | $28.83 | Day Chart 2560 · VWMA 5 above 60 |
| 2026-05-28 | SOXL | Long | — | — | $9.95 | Day Chart 2560 · MA 5 above 60 |
| 2026-05-28 | SOL/USD | Long | — | — | $3.12 | Other · Other |
| 2026-05-28 | HK50 | Short | — | — | -$221.18 | Other · Other |
| 2026-05-28 | XRP/USD | Short | — | — | $1.90 | Other · Other |
| 2026-05-27 | US100 | Short | — | — | -$3.07 | Day EMA9 Reversion · Head & Shoulder |
| 2026-05-27 | US100 | Short | — | — | -$21.10 | Day EMA9 Reversion · MA 5 above 60, VWMA 5 above 60, MACD 共振, Pinbar |
| 2026-05-27 | US100 | Short | — | — | -$25.98 | Day EMA9 Reversion · MA 5 above 60, VWMA 5 above 60, MACD 共振, Pinbar |
| 2026-05-27 | MU | Long | — | — | $2.34 | Day Chart 2560 · MA 5 above 60, VWMA 5 above 60, MACD 共振 |
| 2026-05-27 | US100 | Long | — | — | $0.26 | Other · MA 5 above 60, VWMA 5 above 60 |
| 2026-05-27 | US100 | Short | — | — | -$3.98 | Day EMA9 Reversion · Head & Shoulder |
| 2026-05-26 | US100 | Short | — | — | -$9.15 | Day EMA9 Reversion · Head & Shoulder |
| 2026-05-26 | US100 | Short | — | — | -$2.80 | Day EMA9 Reversion · Head & Shoulder |
| 2026-05-26 | US100 | Long | — | — | -$13.68 | Other · MA 5 above 60, VWMA 5 above 60 |
| 2026-05-25 | US100 | Short | — | — | -$7.08 | Day EMA9 Reversion · Head & Shoulder |
| 2026-05-25 | US100 | Long | — | — | -$1.62 | Other · Other |
| 2026-05-25 | US100 | Long | — | — | -$3.45 | Other · Other |
| 2026-05-22 | US100 | Short | — | — | -$11.20 | Day EMA9 Reversion · Head & Shoulder |
| 2026-05-21 | INTC | Short | — | — | -$1,414.80 | Day EMA9 Reversion · Pinbar, Head & Shoulder |
| 2026-05-21 | INTC | Long | — | — | $1,055.00 | Other · MA 5 above 60, MACD 共振, VWMA 5 above 60 |
| 2026-05-21 | RKLB | Long | — | — | $6.18 | Day Chart 2560 · MA 5 above 60, VWMA 5 above 60, MACD 共振 |
| 2026-05-20 | CEG | Long | — | — | -$13.64 | Day Chart 2560 · Other |
| 2026-05-20 | RKLB | Long | — | — | $7.17 | Day Chart 2560 · MA 5 above 60, VWMA 5 above 60, MACD 共振 |
| 2026-05-20 | RKLB | Long | — | — | $9.81 | Day Chart 2560 · MA 5 above 60, VWMA 5 above 60, MACD 共振 |
| 2026-05-20 | INTC | Long | — | — | $5.40 | Other · MA 5 above 60, MACD 共振, VWMA 5 above 60 |
| 2026-05-19 | INTC | Short | — | — | -$17.24 | Day EMA9 Reversion · Pinbar, Head & Shoulder |
| 2026-05-19 | INTC | Short | — | — | -$2.78 | Day EMA9 Reversion · Pinbar, Head & Shoulder |
| 2026-05-19 | INTC | Short | — | — | -$30.54 | Day EMA9 Reversion · Pinbar, Head & Shoulder |
| 2026-05-18 | US100 | Short | — | — | -$49.99 | Day EMA9 Reversion · Head & Shoulder |
| 2026-05-18 | Gold | Short | — | — | -$50.87 | Other · MA 5 below 60, VWMA 5 below 60, EMA Crossover, MACD 共振 |
| 2026-05-18 | US100 | Long | — | — | -$24.86 | Other · MA 5 above 60, VWMA 5 above 60 |
| 2026-05-15 | INTC | Short | — | — | -$8.48 | Day EMA9 Reversion · Pinbar, Head & Shoulder |
| 2026-05-15 | INTC | Short | — | — | -$10.60 | Other · Pinbar, Head & Shoulder |
| 2026-05-15 | US100 | Long | — | — | -$5.68 | Other · MA 5 above 60, VWMA 5 above 60, MACD 共振 |
| 2026-05-15 | INTC | Short | — | — | -$24.24 | Day EMA9 Reversion · Pinbar, Head & Shoulder |